RoboForex analyst: Ukrainian exports fell by more than 20% in the first quarter of 2023

According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the balance of foreign trade (the difference between export and import volumes) for the first quarter of 2023 remains negative and amounts to 5.39 billion US dollars. This indicator has grown almost 30 times compared to the same period in 2022. This shows that the military conflict significantly reduced Ukraine’s export potential. Although it should be noted that last year in March, a positive foreign trade balance was recorded due to a significant decrease in import volumes. Large-scale attacks on the energy infrastructure only aggravated the current state of affairs, since exporters are one of the main consumers of electricity. Additional difficulties with sales of agricultural products in the countries of Eastern Europe may affect the results of the six months. This was reported by Andrey Goilov, RoboForex analyst.

The monthly dynamics of Ukraine’s exports is presented in the diagram below.

Exports of Ukraine for January-March 2022/2023 (billion USD). Source: Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.

Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine’s exports have decreased by 26.09% compared to the same period in 2022 — to 10.31 billion US dollars. In March, our country exported products in the amount of 3.85 billion dollars — growth by February was 15.61%. The reasons for this were both a decrease in export volumes and a decrease in world prices for food and industrial goods. The largest decline is observed in metallurgy, although the situation among farmers remains quite stable. The extension of the “grain deal” gives reason to believe that export volumes will remain at the current level.

Imports of Ukraine for January-March 2022/2023 (billion US dollars). Source: Ministry of Economy of Ukraine

In January-March of this year, Ukraine’s imports grew by 11.11% compared to the same period last year — up to 15.70 billion US dollars. Ukrainian imports in March grew by 216.00% to 5.53 billion dollars. In total, according to the results of the first quarter of 2023, the total trade turnover amounted to 29.01 billion US dollars. The drop compared to the same period in 2022 was 7.95%.

On the cash foreign exchange market, the hryvnia against the US dollar was fixed below the level of 37.60, and the euro reached the level of 40.80. Problems with the export of agricultural products only aggravate the situation, as the revenue in foreign currencies decreases.

Source: Ministry of Finance

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