Scientists sound the alarm over antibiotic resistance: it could cause millions of deaths

Bacterial drug resistance poses the greatest threat to the elderly

sukanya sitthikongsak/Getty Images

Bacterial resistance to antibiotics could directly or indirectly cause the death of more than 39 million people by 2050, the authors of a global analysis of antibiotic resistance trends predict.

Elderly people are at greatest risk, according to the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (Gram) Project, published in the scientific journal The Lancet, writes The Guardian.

In the work, more than 500 scientists from institutions around the world analyzed data on the relationship between mortality and bacterial resistance to antibiotics between 1990 and 2022.

They found that during this time there was a “significant” decrease in mortality due to bacterial diseases among children under 5 years of age. If in 1990, bacteria were the cause of death of 488,000 children, then in 2022 their number decreased to 193,000. This number is expected to halve by 2050.

Scientists claim that such indicators were achieved thanks to improvements in vaccination and hygiene. In return more and more child deaths are caused by drug-resistant bacteria.

General projections warn that antibiotic resistance will increase among all population groups, especially among people over 70 years of age.

Over the past three decades elderly people were 80% more likely to die due to antibiotic resistance. By 2050, their number will increase by 146% and reach 1.3 million people.

“This landmark study confirms that the world is facing an antibiotic emergency that will result in a terrible human toll for families and communities worldwide.”– said The Reuters Dame Sally Davies, UK Special Envoy on Antimicrobial Resistance and Member of the UN Inter-Agency Coordination Group.

Dr. Tomislav Meštrovic, an associate professor at the University of the North in Croatia, said the trend reflects a rapidly aging population and a greater vulnerability of the elderly to infection.

According to the predictions of the authors of the study, the overall increase in deaths directly or indirectly related to antibiotic resistance, will burden national health care systems.

In addition, it will also increase the annual loss of gross domestic product from 1 to 3.4 trillion dollars until 2030.

“Antimicrobials are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern.

These findings emphasize that antimicrobial resistance is a significant global health threat for decades. And it is growing more and more”said co-author of the study, Dr. Mohsen Nagawi from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (USA),

Scientists suggest that the greatest number of deaths in the future will affect the countries of Asia, in particular India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, as well as Africa south of the Sahara.

It is expected that the results of the study will be discussed in September 2024 in New York (USA) during the UN General Assembly.

It will be recalled that scientists are in the waters of the Arctic Ocean found actinobacteria, which can become the basis for the creation of new antibiotics.