This winter will be the most difficult for the Left Bank Ukraine

This winter will be the most difficult for Ukraine, he believes Fatih Birolexecutive director of the International Energy Agency. He called the energy crisis one of the biggest world crises this winter and warned that the consequences could be not only social and economic, but also political.

During a joint press conference with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen On September 19, Birol hinted that a new wave of refugees from Ukraine could be expected in Europe in the winter.

“As you know, when the temperature drops, energy consumption increases. This will be a major problem for electricity and heating in Ukraine, not only for homes, but also for hospitals, schools, and communication networks. We foresee a significant impact, and not only on energy, because people will want to move, to go where they will have shelter and heating. And these are not only social issues and energy, but also political consequences. That is why it is extremely important.”

Power outages are an important factor in migration, according to a report by the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission. This summer, almost half of Ukrainians interviewed at the border said they were leaving Ukraine because of difficulties with access to electricity, water and heating.

Ursula von der Leyen is visiting Kyiv to discuss Ukraine’s preparations for winter. The day before, she said that the EU is making extraordinary efforts to help Ukraine provide heat and light in homes in winter. As an example, von der Leyen pointed out that Lithuania is dismantling an entire thermal power plant on its territory in order to transfer it to Ukraine.

The official also announced an aid package to Kyiv of about 160 million euros for this winter.

“This includes EUR 60 million in humanitarian aid for shelter and heaters, for example. Also about EUR 100 million for repairs and renewable energy sources. This EUR 100 million will come from the proceeds of Russian assets immobilized in the European Union. Because it is very right that Russia paid for the destruction it caused,” the official said.

Birol announced ten recommendations for preparing Ukraine for winter.

Among other things, it is about the decentralization of energy supply, the transition to green energy, the expansion of electricity supplies from Europe, the acceleration of the delivery of spare parts for the repair of power plants, the increase of tariffs for those who consume more energy, etc.

However, Ukrainian experts believe that recommendations such as decentralization, transition to green energy are unlikely to be realistically implemented before the onset of this winter, they suggest focusing on the protection of supplies.

Moreover, special attention should be paid to supplies to Left Bank Ukraine, he says Svyatoslav Pavlyukexecutive director of the “Energy-efficient cities of Ukraine” center.

“There is a section on the Dnieper. We are entering this heating season, when all the generation on the left bank is actually destroyed, stopped, or damaged. It is not working. Thus, the left bank is very dependent on the power transmission systems. The functioning of the power transmission system is critically important for cities on in the east of the country in this heating period,” says Pavlyuk in his speech at the Washington Wilson Center event on September 17.

Pavlyuk assumed that this winter, “there will be a big difference in the supply of western cities, located where there is a large generation, and eastern cities, where there is no such thing, and which depend on the transmission system.”

Russia will try to damage the nuclear power plant this winter, analysts suggest

Ukraine has lost 80% of its thermal power generation and a third of its hydropower, which is why nuclear power plants are the “backbone” of the Ukrainian energy system, says Pavlyuk.

Analysts assume that Russia will try to damage the nuclear power plant to the point of a radiation leak. To avoid international condemnation, Russia can resort to deceptive tactics and claim that its missiles have inadvertently hit a nuclear facility, or hit the networks that deliver electricity to or remove power from the nuclear power plant.

“This is a kind of gray zone of the Geneva Convention, when there is no intentional targeting of a nuclear reactor, but there is an attack on critical infrastructure, which is key not only for the supply of current from outside the territory of the station, but also for the supply of energy from the station,” – says under discussion time at the Wilson Center Maryana Budzherin, researcher at Harvard University.

Pavlyuk agrees. He points out that in this case it will be very difficult for Ukrainian personnel to slow down the reactor without losing control over it.

“A nuclear power plant cannot be slowed down like a car,” says Pavlyuk. “It’s a very inertial system. I’m told the operators have 10 seconds to start shutting down the reactor before it goes out of control.”

“This is a great danger not only for Ukraine, but also for neighboring countries,” the analyst adds.

The EU is unable to quickly increase energy supplies to Ukraine

At the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukraine joined the European energy grid in record time. Power imports from Europe helped this summer as Russia stepped up its attacks on energy infrastructure.

However, physical limitations do not allow for a rapid increase in supply this winter as well, Ukrainians are forced to rely on their own generation capacity, von der Leyen said at a press conference on Thursday.

Physical interconnectors make it possible to increase power to 2.2 gigawatts from the current 1.7, says Oleksandr Kharchenkodirector of the Center for Energy Research, during a speech at the Wilson Center.

He notes, however, that “on the European side, between Bulgaria and Romania, as well as inside Hungary, there are several bottlenecks that our neighbors have to solve. If they don’t solve this problem, it will not be possible to increase the capacity. it takes time.”

The process continues, although not as quickly as Ukraine wants, Kharchenko notes.

The expansion will add an additional 400 megawatts – “it’s useful, but not too much. It will help us, but it will not save us from the restrictions.”

In order to further expand capacity, it is necessary to build new high-voltage lines, the expert says.

“This is planned. Work is underway on the construction of two such lines. One – with Poland, the other – with Romania. But it will take 3-5 years,” Kharchenko adds.

In order to ensure work in winter, Ukrainian enterprises meanwhile take care of their own energy supply.

Kharchenko, who heads the Center for Project Development, says that only his center develops “600 megawatt projects, broken down into very small projects for its own needs.”

He gave the example of a pharmaceutical company that sells a lot to Europe and needs an uninterrupted power supply. The company, according to Kharchenko, is building “its own smart grid” to meet its own needs, as well as sell a certain amount of electricity to the national grid.

“This is a standard situation for Ukrainian business today,” Kharchenko says.