Banks have improved the forecast of the development of the situation in the financial sector — NBU

The majority of managers of banks and non-banking financial companies surveyed by the National Bank reported an improvement in the state of the financial sector over the past six months (57% instead of 3% in November 2022), and the share of respondents expecting a deterioration in the next six months decreased from 51% to 3%. This is evidenced by the results of the “Survey on Systemic Risks of the Financial Sector” for May 2023.

Photo: NBU 1

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The respondents of the second survey improve their own assessments of the stability of the financial sector to significant negative events. The share of respondents who rated the stability of the financial sector as high or very high increased again. The total balance of responses reached a record value since the start of the survey in May 2018.

At the same time, the assessment of the overall level of risk in the financial sector has noticeably changed – the share of respondents who considered it high or very high decreased from 83% to 58%.

Survey participants continue to improve their own assessments of the current state of the financial sector — the balance of responses (+11%) has acquired a positive value for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Key factors

According to the results of the survey, the risk of war with Russia remained key for the financial sector, but the list of main risks underwent significant changes.

The factor of corruption, the activity of law enforcement agencies and the judicial system returned to second place. So far, since the beginning of the full-scale war, this risk has barely made it into the top ten.

Risks of fraud and cyberthreats, risks of the level of economic activity and the value of assets, and the quality of collateral fell into the top five.

The factors of the level of inflation and the exchange rate shifted from the leaders towards the end of the top twenty risks.

Read also: Business preserves positive evaluations of the results of its activities — NBU

Survey

The survey was conducted from May 11 to May 24, 2023, with the participation of managers of 22 banks, ten insurers and three investment companies. Financial institutions to which special economic and other restrictive measures (sanctions) were applied were not included in the sample. The final results were not determined by the size of the bank/company or their share in the market — all answers are equal.

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Source: Ministry of Finance

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