Bankers: despite the war in Ukraine, the demand for mortgage loans began to grow
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In the 4th quarter, banks slightly improved their estimates of lending indicators: respondents noted the growth of credit demand from the business side and, for the first time in 2022, the resumption of consumer demand for mortgage loans. This is stated in the NBU survey.
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Credit market
According to the survey, in October — December 2022, the interest of corporate borrowers was greatest in hryvnia short-term loans and from the side of SMEs. The demand for long-term and currency loans decreased.
“High interest rates and the lack of capital investments still restrained the demand for business loans. For the fourth time in a row, the majority of banks have announced the strengthening of corporate lending standards, mostly for long-term and currency loans,” the press service reports.
Negative consumer sentiment restrained the population’s demand for consumer loans. At the same time, for the first time since the beginning of 2022, banks reported the resumption of public demand for mortgage loans, including due to more favorable interest rates. Household lending standards strengthened for the fourth quarter in a row.
Risks
Survey participants noted a significant increase in interest rate, currency and operational risk in the fourth quarter of 2022. At the same time, liquidity risk decreased for the first time in four quarters.
Waiting for banks
“In the next 12 months, respondents expect a moderate improvement in the dynamics of corporate lending and a subsequent reduction in the retail loan portfolio. Banks are counting on the growth of funding in the next 12 months, predicting inflows of funds from both the population and business,” the message says.
Most financial institutions expect a deterioration in the quality of the loan portfolio, but the share of such banks has decreased since the last survey.
In the next three months, banks expect an increase in all types of risks, however, the share of such respondents has slightly decreased.
Source: Ministry of Finance
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