Energy-resistant winter: is Ukraine ready for Russian attacks on energy infrastructure

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The heating season of 2023-2024, which starts already in October, will most likely again be accompanied by Russian missile attacks on the objects of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Last year, Russian terrorist attacks created huge problems for Ukraine: the energy supply system turned out to be vulnerable, causing blackouts.

The heating systems of the cities also did not cope under the pressure of rocket attacks, due to which the inhabitants of these cities were periodically left without heating.

This year the situation is different: if in technical terms the Ukrainian energy system is much weaker than it was at the beginning of the last heating season, then in terms of experience the situation is the opposite – everyone already knows what preventive measures should be taken before shelling in order to recover faster after them.

Whether conclusions were drawn after the last heating season, about the process of preparing the energy sector for winter, as well as what needs to be done to ensure energy security and sustainability in the long term, was discussed in a discussion between experts and representatives of local self-government bodies at the forum “Energy-resistant winter?

What else can be done to protect against Russian terrorism”, organized by the Network for the Protection of National Interests “ANTS”.

Network repair, fuel storage: how Ukraine prepared for winter

During the first panel of the meeting, the general state of the Ukrainian energy system was discussed by experts – the director of the “Energy Research Center” Oleksandr Kharchenko and the president of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” Mykhailo Gonchar.

Their forecasts regarding the course of the next heating season are ambiguous. Of course, energy facilities damaged by Russian shelling last winter cannot be restored for several months of the year, but now Ukrainian energy workers have the experience and understanding of how to respond to terrorist attacks on infrastructure facilities.

Both experts emphasize that Ukraine will not go through the winter without fan shutdowns, even if there are no Russian attacks on the infrastructure – there will not be enough generating capacity in any development.

“Can we be satisfied with the state of our power system? Of course not. It is impossible to replace 50% of the generating capacities located in the occupied territory and restore 45% of the high-voltage network broken by missile attacks during one season.

“Ukrenergo” has done a gigantic job of restoration, but objectively the situation remains quite difficult. But there are reasons for optimism: although the Russians will try to “finish off” coal generation, there will be no more blackouts. – says Oleksandr Kharchenko.

Mykhailo Gonchar also agrees with him. He noted that according to forecasts of the American Atmospheric and Oceanic Agency, the winter of 2023-2024 will not be colder than the previous ones.

“Under such conditions, the remaining reserves may be enough for Ukraine. But this does not mean that there will be no fan shutdowns, – they will be and we need to get used to it as a norm,” said the specialist, adding that already now Ukrainian energy companies should focus on preparing for the next heating seasons, which may be more difficult than this one.

Are communities ready for winter?

The second part of the discussion concerned the preparation for the heating season of urban and rural territorial communities.

According to the research conducted by the Network for the Protection of National Interests “ANTS”, the majority of communities made maximum efforts so that heat and energy facilities could survive the next winter, stably providing citizens and businesses with heat and light. A more difficult task for the communities was to provide reserve capacities and volumes of energy carriers.

As Serhii Karpuk, head of the Shatsk settlement community (Volyn region), told, problems at the regional level differ somewhat depending on the territories.

Since the Shatsk community does not have a centralized gas and heat supply, its preparation for the heating season consists in providing communal institutions and the population with firewood, which is used for individual boiler rooms.

“In some ways, it is easier for us: unlike cities that are completely dependent on gas and energy carriers, the main energy carrier for us is firewood, which is sufficient in our territory. Today, our community is fully provided with firewood.

But we are dependent on electricity in the same way as other regions. With the help of our partners, including ANTS, we purchased generators and provided them to all key community facilities, so that in the event of a power outage, communal institutions would continue their work.” – reported Serhii Karpuk.

Community leaders noted that communities and cities with centralized heat supply face the biggest problems, but they are also coping with preparations.

As Pavlo Shimko, the head of the Bakhmac city community (Chernihiv region), noted, despite all the challenges, the city of Bakhmac managed to establish autonomous power supply of the city’s boiler houses and get through the previous winter.

At the same time, the head of Berezhansk OTG (Ternopil Region), Rostyslav Bortnyk, emphasized the importance of implementation of energy efficiency programs in communities – in particular, installation of solar panels, as well as building insulation.

This will help to significantly save money and energy resources consumed by the community during the heating season.

“From October 1, the Cabinet of Ministers is taking away the “military income tax” from communities, and this has a very negative effect on preparations for winter. With these funds, we planned to install solar panels on critical infrastructure facilities, but now we are forced to do it at the expense of loans.” – says the head of the Berezhan community.

This publication is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The Network for the Protection of National Interests “ANTS” was responsible for the content of the publication, but it does not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the US Government.

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