How the wages of Ukrainians will grow in the coming years. NBU forecast

The National Bank predicts that the average nominal salary in Ukraine in 2023 will grow by 21.9%, and the real (inflation-adjusted) by 3.7%. This is stated in the “Inflation Report” of the NBU for April 2023.

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Salary growth forecast

According to the regulator’s forecast, wage growth in 2023 will be facilitated by the further adaptation of the real sector to work in high-risk conditions and a sufficiently soft fiscal policy.

In the future, the main factor will be the increase in demand for labor force in the conditions of accelerated economic growth.

“After the full opening of the borders, a significant part of businesses will have to compete for workers, including with foreign employers, which will become a significant factor for further wage growth. In this regard, the difference in salaries for mobile and less mobile workforce is expected to grow,” the message says.

Salaries in the next two years

The National Bank predicts that nominal wages will increase by 19.2% in 2024, and real wages by 5.7%.

Nominal wages are expected to increase by 12.4% and real wages by 4.3% in 2025.

Salaries in 2022

It should be noted that according to Gosstat estimates, in 2022 the average nominal salary increased by 5.9% (the real salary decreased by 11.8%), which is better than previous NBU estimates.

According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the increase in salaries was primarily due to the budgetary sector, in particular due to the increase in the salary of doctors in early 2022, in the state administration and defense sector, as well as in IT and financial and insurance activities.

Read also: The IMF has updated its forecast for GDP, inflation and wages in Ukraine for the coming years

Salaries in 2023

At the same time, it is noted that nominal wages have decreased in the production and service sectors. Indirect estimates indicate that in the first quarter of 2023, the financial situation of households remained difficult, although it was supported by an average increase in pensions by 19.7% since March 2023.

A significant factor in the decrease in income in the first quarter of 2023 was the reduction of economic activity due to the electricity deficit at the beginning of the quarter.

According to the NBU survey, due to power outages in the first quarter of 2023, the company optimized expenses, including personnel, both due to the reduction of employees and their salaries, including in accordance with actual working hours.

Read also: The National Bank significantly improved forecasts of GDP growth and inflation

Some businesses supported their employees in a non-monetary way, in particular, they opened “Points of Invincibility” in their offices for employees to work or rest, the NBU added.

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Author: News editor Roman Myronchuk writes on the following topics: Economy, finance, banks, cryptocurrencies, investments, technologies

Source: Ministry of Finance

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