I have not seen fatigue from Ukrainians in Europe, and accepting Ukrainian refugees can be profitable for Europeans

Russia’s war in Ukraine forced millions to leave their homes and seek refuge in other countries. Of more than 6.3 million Ukrainian refugees, almost 6 million were accepted by Europe.

Europe, which is struggling with its own economic problems, such as high inflation, rising costs of living, allocates significant funds to help Ukraine, as well as support Ukrainian refugees.

European leaders declare their unwavering support for Ukraine. Showing solidarity with Ukraine, the EU implements powerful sanctions against Russia, and also decided to start membership negotiations with Ukraine. Despite Hungary’s opposition, the EU plans to approve the next large aid package for Ukraine on February 1.

Is Europe tired of supporting Ukraine and Ukrainians?

However, observers say that Europeans began to feel “fatigue from supporting Ukraine” after almost two years of war. Thus, Suzy Dennison and Pavel Zelka from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) saw a trend towards a decrease in support for Ukraine in the results of the ECFR survey. The survey showed that 34% of the Europeans surveyed in September-October in ten countries said that they would like Ukraine to regain all its territories. This is slightly less than the 38% of Europeans surveyed who held this view in January 2023.

The war in Ukraine is no longer perceived by a significant number of the European public, especially those who are not close to the conflict zone, as an emergency, researchers conclude in an article for Foreign Affairs.

Next year’s elections also influence the opinion of European politicians. Many of them do not want to create the impression that the problems of Ukrainians are more important to them than the population of their countries, says the Politico article.

The newspaper quoted one of the European officials, who did not want to give his name: “Doubts are growing. How bad is the situation on the battlefield? How much more money are we going to pour into this black hole? Populists in Europe will be on this wave in the coming months.”

The publication also cites the words of a European diplomat, who indicates that a group of countries is emerging “which doubts that Ukraine will become a member of the EU”, mentioning, in particular, Austria, which wants to consider this process together with the next steps regarding the membership of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The IMF does not agree with such estimates.

“I have not seen tiredness in Europe from supporting Ukrainians,” Alfred Kemmer, Director of the Foundation’s European Department, said in an interview with the Voice of America Ukrainian Service.

The official is convinced that support is maintained and these countries will be able to get a net benefit for their budgets, because the labor force has been replenished with people who pay taxes.

“I see significant efforts to integrate Ukrainian refugees into the labor market,” notes Kemmer. “They make up 0.6% of the labor force in Europe, which is not an insignificant number. Yes, there are certain financial costs for supporting refugees. All countries provide support and some more than others, such as the Czech Republic, Poland and Estonia. In Poland alone, Ukrainians paid $2.4 billion in taxes. Over time, there could be a net benefit to the budget from Ukrainian refugees. Everything must be done to integrate Ukrainian refugees into the market quickly and effectively labor, which requires an active labor policy”.

Refugees will help Ukraine join the EU

Since many refugees are women and children, childcare policies need to be developed. The more Europe works on these aspects, the more refugees will join the workforce and over time, Ukrainian refugees will benefit the labor market in Europe, the official says.

The Ukrainian government hopes to return the immigrants in order to restore the economy.

When this happens, the experience of Ukrainians in Europe can help Ukraine integrate into Europe, the official says.

“The fact that these connections are being created will, again, help Ukraine’s strategic goal of joining the EU. It will help create economic connections and people-to-people connections, which is just as important,” says Kemmer.

Relations between the European Union and Ukraine are relations of true solidarity not only with regard to aid packages for Ukraine, but also aid to Ukrainians, the official is convinced.

“Europe has opened its borders to trade, and it has also taken in most of the six million refugees, and the financial cost of this is not huge, but it is also quite large for the EU as a whole. It is 0.2% of GDP in 2022.

In some countries, such as the Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, it is more than 1% of GDP in 2022. So Europe is really showing solidarity with Ukraine,” he says.

As for trade disputes, such as the strike of transporters on the Polish border or the dispute over the export of Ukrainian grain to Europe, this was to be expected.

Europe’s decision to start negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU started a long process of negotiations. And it is this time that will be needed in order to settle all the possible consequences of this process.

The stronger the Ukrainian economy will be, the more Ukraine will feel the benefits of rapprochement with Europe, he says.

“Over time, the economic benefits of rapprochement with Europe will increase. The stronger the Ukrainian economy, the greater the benefits from this partnership,” the official said.

Ukraine, on the other hand, must improve governance standards, overcome corruption, in order to create conditions for investment in economic development and improve the welfare of the population in order to receive the greatest benefits from cooperation with Europe.