International reserves will reach $35 billion at the end of the year – NBU forecast
[ad_1]
Considering the amount of financial assistance received from partner countries, the National Bank expects that international reserves of Ukraine will grow to 35 billion dollars by the end of the year.
This is known from the press briefing on the decisions of the NBU board on monetary policy.
This year, the volume of revenues from international partners may exceed 42 billion dollars, the regulator expects. This will contribute to the growth of international reserves to about 35 billion dollars at the end of the year.
Such amounts of reserves will strengthen the NBU’s ability to further maintain exchange rate stability and gradually ease currency restrictions.
At the same time, a significant current account deficit is expected due to increased imports amid a gradual recovery of domestic demand, spending by a significant number of forced Ukrainian migrants, and restrained exports amid low harvests and limited logistics. The arrival of international aid will compensate for these factors.
The government is increasing tax revenues and domestic borrowing, but this is not enough to finance wartime budget expenditures and post-war reconstruction.
International aid will remain an important source of financing budgetary needs. The latter, together with the further development of the domestic debt market, will make it possible to avoid repeating the “printing of the hryvnia” to cover the budget deficit.
At the same time, after the record figures of the deficit and official financing this year, their gradual decrease is predicted from next year. The reasons are the increase in export flows and the gradual return of migrants. However, the deficit will continue to be covered by significant amounts of external financing. This will allow the volume of international reserves to be kept at a relatively comfortable level.
We remind you:
The National Bank is expected passed the decision to keep the discount rate at 25% and significantly improved the inflation forecast.
The regulator also improved the forecast restoration of the economy of Ukraine this year from 0.3% to 2% in view of the rapid restoration of the energy system
[ad_2]
Original Source Link
