Promotional season 2023. What goods will Ukrainians buy in the coming months

Pgross profit in dollar terms of online store sales for the first half of the year did not rise, neither relative to the indicators of 2022 nor 2021. The only exception is the Pet Goods category, which grew significantly.

The team of analysts of the Promodo agency predicts that during the sales season, the income of Ukrainian online retailers should increase significantly. It even suggests that it may slightly exceed the 2021 totals.

“Uncertainty is the new reality, and businesses need to become even more flexible. Why do we consider this aspect in the context of the 2023 high season? Because the high season is a time when you have to adapt to changes in demand in a limited period of time, and this adaptation also includes financial flexibility.” — Yuliya Chub, Head of Promodo’s PPC department

Retrospective 2022: what was expected and what was received

• Everyone expected that the hot period would last from November 21 to 27. They didn’t know if there would actually be a demand, how people would react, but they wanted to get the maximum.
• From past years’ experience, the Promodo team understood that Monday would be a peak day, because usually the peak days in a promotion week are Monday and Black Friday itself. In 2022, there was an increase in demand, but not so fast. A rather small increase in brand inquiries was also observed.
• Tuesday – traffic was at the level of Monday, there was not the usual drop like in past years. The cost per click continued to increase, but the number of transactions decreased.
• Wednesday and Thursday is a global blackout. However, advertising campaigns continue to consume the budget. Traffic is coming, CPC is growing – no one has an understanding of whether the campaigns are working effectively. Also, the average check “falls” and the top share categories begin to change.
• Friday — electricity returns, cost per click continues to rise. The maximum peak demand for traffic and transactions. High demand for products from the categories Charging stations and External batteries also extends to Saturday and Sunday. Many players decide to extend the promotional offers until the end of November.

After the blackout, the situation with the top categories changed — users began to buy more charging stations, power banks, generators, Starlink systems, etc. At some retailers, the Charging stations and External batteries category even made it to the top 1.

However, due to the change of products in the top, the average check for most players fell by 16%.

High season 2023: current situation

“At the moment, we do not see indicators for November that would accurately indicate that this year there will be an increase in demand by 20% or more. Usually, in the Ukrainian market, players want to receive precisely +20%-30% year-on-year. This is such an indicator Although some niches, in which the season is already underway, show growth compared to 2022.

We predict that retail will receive such growth, but it will require higher costs – we can already see this for sure. This year, the cost of a click has increased significantly, and during Black Friday it grows even more actively.” — Yulia Beresneva, Team Lead of PPC Promodo

Some players also decided to start the Black Friday period earlier, thus working on the growing demand in the run-up to the promotion itself. For several years in a row a significant part of the audience starts browsing the products early, sees the promotional price and buys.

“The main trend in communication now is transparency and honesty. If you announce discounts of up to 60%, then the site must have relevant products with such a discount. It is not worth announcing -60%, but adding only one product with such a discount.

It is better to announce a smaller percentage of the discount, because there are always users who are not lazy, will switch, filter the products, look at each one — and, having discovered manipulation, will definitely leave negative reviews.” — Svitlana Fursa, Head of the Promodo Retention Department

Also in November of this year, we noticed a significant decrease in demand for power banks, charging stations and generators — they almost left the top 10 big players. There was quite a high demand for goods from these categories in September.

We assume that this was due to a lot of news that this winter will be more difficult than the last. Accordingly, Ukrainians were preparing for this.

Instead, the demand for small household appliances is growing noticeably, especially in the category of robot vacuum cleaners and multi-ovens/air grills. This was not the case in previous years. We believe that this growth was caused by viral videos on TikTok.

Forecast of the top 10 categories for Black Friday 2023

• Smartphones (Xiaomi, iPhone 14, and in the Pro version — 15 Pro, Pro Max), Samsung Galaxy, Poco, Google Pixel)
• Laptops, including gaming laptops (MacBook, Acer, Lenovo, Asus, HP)
• Televisions (Samsung, Xiaomi, Sony, Kivi, Hisense). Black Friday and New Year’s have always been a season for this category of products.
• Washing machines (INTERLUX, Samsung, LG, Midea, AEG, Beko)
• Refrigerators (Whirlpool, Gorenje, Samsung, BECO)
• Multi ovens/air grills (Tefal)
• Coffee machines (Philips, Delonghi). This category made it to the top of Black Friday 2021. And since then, he works well in this period every year.
• Vacuum cleaners (Rowenta, Samsung, Philips, Karcher, Dyson). The dynamics remains at the level of last year, but robotic vacuum cleaners (Xiaomi) are already showing more growth.
• Game consoles (PlayStation 5)
• Smart watches (Garmin, Apple Watch)

Recommendations for December

Two important points this year are the transfer of St. Nicholas Day from December 19 to December 6. So, if you have a Children’s products category on your website, then advertising campaigns on this matter should be started earlier.

Also, Christmas on December 25 is already more positioned in Ukraine, so it takes over part of the orders that used to go not only on January 7, but also on New Year’s. In this regard, online stores should work out options for discounts and additional offers in advance.