Putin’s personnel decisions have weakened the combat capability of the Russian army

The decision of the President of Russia to launch a large-scale invasion of Ukraine without a clearly structured command of Russian troops, as well as numerous changes in the leadership of the Russian group that followed during the war led to a decrease in the striking capabilities of Russian troops in Ukraine, disorganization of the command structure, and a lack of unity in the leadership of the army. Such statements are contained in a report published on April 30 by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which analyzes events related to the war in Ukraine.

As stated in the report, the lack of unity in the Russian military command and the formation of various groups within it is not a new phenomenon, but recently this process has reached an unusually high level of intensity.

The report notes that at the beginning of the invasion, Putin did not appoint a single commander of the Russian group, which contributed to the ineffectiveness of the command in the first period of the war. Probably, as analysts note, Vladimir Putin was counting on the quick capture of Kyiv and victory in the war and wanted to present it as his own geopolitical success. Putin’s actions are compared to the behavior of the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin during and after the Second World War, in particular, in relation to Marshal Georgy Zhukov, with whom Stalin did not want to share the glory of the winner.

In April of last year, after the failure of the offensive on Kyiv, Putin finally appointed General Alexander Dvornikov as commander of the group in Ukraine. It is confirmed that he was given the task of taking complete control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by May 9. After it was not fulfilled, General Gennady Zhidko was appointed to Dvornikov’s place at the end of May.

Allegedly, these generals were among the close associates of the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in August-September last year, however, led to new changes in the Russian command. Putin then turned, as it is claimed, to people not from Gerasimov’s orbit. The rise of the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, and the founder of PMC “Wagner” Evgeny Prigozhin belong to the same period. After all, Putin, as it is said, in search of support from the ultra-nationalist community, appointed General Sergei Surovykin as commander of the group.

Subsequently, according to sources, Gerasimov, at a meeting with Putin in Rostov-on-Don on December 18, tried to convince the president to return the “old guard” – generals who had previously been removed from command. This was accompanied by a campaign against PMC “Wagner” in media resources controlled by the Ministry of Defense. On January 11, Gerasimov was appointed commander of the Russian group in Ukraine.

At the same time, Putin still did not give preference to any of the opposing “factions”. It is claimed that on February 22, he arranged a meeting between Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Prigozhin in order to resolve differences between them.

It is noted that Putin, as a rule, resorts to the rotation of commanders, and does not directly dismiss or remove them from their posts. However, the commanders whose resignations were announced, for example Alexander Lapin or Mikhail Teplinsky, received new positions after a few months. The purpose of the rotation is to ensure that no single figure acquires too much political influence. In the conditions of war, experts note, such a style of management, however, may turn out to be ineffective

According to analysts, which of the groups in the Russian command will eventually prevail in the hardware struggle depends on how the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive will develop. At the same time, it is noted that it will not be easy for Putin to remove Gerasimov from his position, who is the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and has shown himself to be a person completely loyal to the president.