A third of the armed forces will be robotic, and artificial intelligence will change the course of wars – Milli

The U.S. military plans to unveil a new doctrine for long-term modernization that will include, among other things, the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing.

This was announced by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the USA Mark Milley during the press conference on June 30.

The general emphasized that one of the tasks of the United States is to optimize technologies, in particular artificial intelligence, for the conduct of war – in order to maintain the current decisive advantage of the US military.

“We are not doing this in order to wage war, but in order to deter the war of great powers,” Milli emphasized.

During the National Security Forum on Capitol Hill in June, Milli also touched on the topic of AI and emphasized that technology that can even reproduce emotions will have a big impact on the military.

“This will have a fundamental impact,” the US Army Association quoted the general as saying AUSA.

It remains an open question how quickly the new technology will become available and how it will be adapted to military purposes. “It’s fast approaching,” Milli assured, citing experts’ predictions about the military adaptation of artificial intelligence technologies already in five years.

“This is a technology that our opponents will use against us, and it will be advantageous for us to get there first,” Mark Milley noted.

Concerns about AI

Milli has previously commented on concerns about the power of AI. Yes, in an interview with the publication NPR President Biden’s top military adviser said the US has decided that people, not computers, should continue to make life-or-death decisions in war.

General Milley added that US policy – unlike that of some “enemy countries” – is to “ensure that people stay in the decision-making cycle”.

Millie says that the fundamental lessons of warfare should be applied on the battlefield. However, according to him, the new technology for the first time in a decade led to serious changes in the nature of war, which had consequences for the United States.

“We have to make sure we modernize our forces to remain dominant,” says the general. “By doing so, we will deter any potential aggression from any future great power that could threaten the United States and our interests.”

Decision-making time will be drastically reduced

On the other hand, AI-driven software could force major powers to reduce their decision-making window to minutes instead of hours or days. They may be too dependent on strategic and tactical AI assessments, even when it comes to nuclear war, warns Foreign Policy.

The publication cites Herbert Lin from Stanford University, who says the danger is that decision-makers may gradually over-rely on AI as part of command and control weapons because it operates at a much faster speed than humans.

In the book “Artificial Intelligence and the Bomb” published this year James Johnson from the University of Aberdeen suggests a scenario of nuclear war in the East China Sea in 2025 triggered by artificial intelligence-driven intelligence from the US and China. It’s about program errors, artificial intelligence’s propensity for hyperbole, and the danger of a situation where people start to believe that machines “think.”

And in a report published by the Arms Control Associationit says that artificial intelligence and other new technologies, such as hypersonic missiles, could lead to a “blurring of the distinction between conventional and nuclear attack.”

And also that the struggle for the use of new technologies for military purposes is proceeding at a faster pace than attempts to assess the danger they pose and establish limits on their use.

Danger from fraudsters or cyber terrorists

Another concern is that AI technology could allow fraudsters or even terrorists to gain the know-how to build dirty bombs or other deadly devices. Much of the data today is held by private companies, which can be vulnerable to spying driven by the same artificial intelligence. Declassification can also apply to the discovery of nuclear weapons sites, reducing the deterrent effect of such secrecy.

Businessmen, computer scientists and philosophers (more than 110 people in total) in March called for a moratorium on the development of artificial intelligence systems and experiments with it due to fears that AI could cause significant changes, because currently “there is no adequate level of responsible management of such a resource”. Voice of America informed.

Make war less deadly

The main task of artificial intelligence is not to deprive military analysts of their work, but to make war less deadly and, possibly, to strengthen deterrence, the commentators of the publication emphasize Foreign Policy.

According to them, the US Department of Defense is already experimenting with artificial intelligence bots that can pilot a modified F-16 fighter jet, and Russia is testing autonomous vehicles similar to tanks. China is rushing to deploy its own AI-driven systems, and the effectiveness of armed drones is also likely to increase in the coming years.

The publication also informs about the “secret program” of the US Air Force, which is an attempt to develop artificial intelligence – “Next Generation Air Dominance”. Foreign Policy, citing its own sources, says that under this program, about 1,000 unmanned aerial vehicles are currently operating along with 200 manned aircraft.

Retired US Air Force General Charles Wold believes that “this will increase the strength”, as currently one of the biggest problems remains the selection of personnel.

Robotization of war

In the next 10-15 years, approximately one third of the world’s most modern armed forces will be robotic, Mark Milley believes.

According to him, current robotics can implement one of the main military instructions of the Chinese thinker Sun Tzu, the author of the historical treatise on military strategy “The Art of War”.

“Sun Tzu tells us: see yourself and the enemy, and you will win 1000 battles. Artificial intelligence and quantum computing will do just that. We will be able to see ourselves and see the enemy in much more meaningful ways than we can now,” Milley said.

He also points out that robotics will play an increasing role in unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned marine vessels and unmanned ground vehicles. The general reminds that even today they are becoming important components of almost every army.

Milli predicts an unmanned air force and a navy “without sailors” or a tank without a crew.

By the way, the Voice of America reported even before the full-scale invasion of Russia (but during the ATO) that Ukrainian military leaders and officials of Ukroboronprom demonstrated the new experimental robot “Phantom-2” at the exhibition of the Association of the US Army AUSA in Washington. The new robotic machine was designed with the lessons of hybrid warfare in mind.

The “Phantom-2” ground drone can move on wheels or tracks, can be armed with anti-tank weapons, grenade launchers or automatic weapons. This weapon was planned to be used against the Russian-led forces during the anti-terrorist operation at that time.

The General Director of the Ukroboronprom state concern, Roman Romanov, told Voice of America in an interview at the time that American companies are showing significant interest in Ukrainian equipment tested on the real battlefield.

Predictions of artificial intelligence about the war between Russia and Ukraine

While experts and government officials debate the feasibility of using artificial intelligence in military decision-making, the technology has already demonstrated its usefulness, including as a tool for predicting a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

According to retired US Army General Stanley McChrystal for an article in Foreign PolicyAI-based models gave a “particularly dire” and clear prediction that Russia would invade.

And this was at a stage when the possibility of war was still being discussed in Washington and other Western capitals as theoretical.

On Friday Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley stated that he is not surprised that the offensive of the Ukrainian army is taking place more slowly than predicted by computer calculations.

Asked if he was concerned that Ukraine’s counteroffensive was taking too long and not showing enough progress, Milley said: “War on paper and real war are different. In a real war, real people die. Real people on the front lines, real people in combat. cars, real bodies are torn apart by explosions.”

“So when the computer tells you that you’re going to advance at this or that rate, maybe a real war can slow it down a little bit,” Milley said during a talk at the US National Press Club on Friday, June 30.

Now artificial intelligence predicts, for example, strikes on Ukrainian cities. But the main role continues to be played by intelligence and other tools traditionally used by the armed forces.

Lieutenant General Jack Shanahan, the former director of the Pentagon’s Joint Center for Artificial Intelligence, in a comment to Foreign Policy, assured that the US Defense Ministry, despite all the interest in the capabilities of AI, will not transfer command and control to machines. The main task for AI, he said, remains to improve the efficiency of technology to save lives and help prevent war.

At the same time, the question is “whether the Chinese and the Russians, along with other third parties, will follow the same rules as Washington,” says Shanahan.

“I do not believe that the US will go down the path of allowing things … without human control. But I’m not sure that someone else might not. I think the biggest concern would be giving that machine or object too much power.”

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