Business has positively assessed its prospects for the first time since October 2021 – survey

Business, having adapted to the conditions of a full-scale war, in April positively evaluated the results of its activity compared to the previous month for the first time since October 2021. This is evidenced by the index of expected business activity (IODA), calculated monthly by the National Bank.

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Changing the index

In April 2023, the IODA rose to 51.5 from 49.5 in March, crossing the neutral level (50 points), which indicates expectations of production growth.

Trade enterprises again provided the most optimistic estimates of the results and prospects of their activities, taking into account the slowdown in inflationary pressure, the revival of consumer demand and the increase in the supply of goods: the sectoral index in April rose to 57.6 from 53.6 in March.

Industrial enterprises for the second month in a row expect growth in their economic results against the background of improved logistics, reduction of production costs to restore energy supply and stabilization of fuel prices: the sectoral index in April was 50.5 compared to 51.2 in March.

Enterprises in the service sector continued to soften negative assessments of their economic prospects thanks to the gradual recovery of demand, improvement in the energy supply situation and the seasonal factor: the sectoral index was 48.8 compared to 45.7 in March. Respondents significantly softened their negative estimates of the volume of new orders, while expecting an increase in the volume of services provided and services in progress.

Construction enterprises gave the most restrained estimates of their economic results among other sectors, taking into account the low financial ability of consumers, lack of investments and unfavorable weather conditions: the sectoral index in April was 44.9 (45.9 in March).

Respondents’ estimates of employment have softened: trade enterprises expect an increase in the number of employees for the first time since January 2022, the rest of the polled sectors predict lower rates of personnel reduction than in previous months.

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Source: Ministry of Finance

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