Exports from the EU for over $1 billion “disappeared” during transit through the Russian Federation
[ad_1]
More than 1 billion dollars of exports from the EU, prohibited for import into the Russian Federation as part of sanctions, “disappeared” last year during transit to neighboring countries of the Russian Federation, and the estimate may be significantly higher due to incomplete data.
This is discussed in the material Financial Times with reference to analyzed open trade data.
Trade data suggest that only about half of dual-use goods (ie those that can be used in the military complex) sent from the EU actually reached their declared destinations in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. We are talking about goods worth 2 billion dollars.
European officials believe that these goods could have entered Russia directly from the EU under the pretext that they were transiting to countries neighboring the aggressor. A disproportionately large share of such exports went from the EU to the Baltic countries bordering Russia and Belarus.
Discrepancies in trade records suggest that Russia circumvented the sanctions by using intermediaries or suppliers who indicated false destinations on EU customs declarations. Thus, Moscow could receive critically important European products, for example – aviation components, optical equipment and gas turbines.
“Where else could it have gone? Why did these countries suddenly need these goods right now? Who needs these goods the most in the region? Obviously Russia,” says Estonian Sanctions Minister Erki Kodar.
Some goods, such as gas turbines or radio broadcasting equipment, have barely reached their destinations after being shipped from the EU, the data shows.
Only in February, the EU banned the transit of dual-use goods through Russia, which means they cannot enter Russia directly from the EU, even if they are destined for another country. But officials in the Baltic states fear that the ban is not enough to stem the flow.
At the same time, the real figure of the probable “phantom” flow of Russian imports is much higher – the FT was able to compare with data on international trade flows information about such imports worth $1 billion, but it is only about a sample of sanctioned goods.
If we take the entire trade of the EU over the last year, the gap between the statistics of the EU and Kazakhstan means that the two countries “lost” 2.9 billion dollars of trade. In 2021, the equivalent figure was 450 million dollars.
The surge in exports of goods subject to export controls from the EU to Kazakhstan is currently sufficient to offset the nearly 40% drop in exports to Russia and Belarus following the imposition of sanctions.
At the same time, the Russian Federation began abusing transit even before the full-scale invasion. Russia has been under sanctions since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2014, and has therefore used transit benefits to circumvent the rules.
In the 13 months leading up to the Great War, Lithuania sent $28 million worth of dual-use goods (statistically traceable) to Kazakhstan, while the Kazakhs reported receiving only $9 million.
A full-scale invasion in 2022 greatly increased the size of the flows – and the corresponding gap in imports. In 13 months after the start of the war, according to Lithuania, it sent such goods to Kazakhstan worth 84 million dollars, and the latter received only 11 million dollars. That is, the declared export to the country increased by 56 million dollars during this period, and the declared import increased by only 2 million dollars.
[ad_2]
Original Source Link
