How high is the threat of a terrorist attack by Russia at the ZNPP? Assessments of Western experts

Western countries are trying to convince the countries of the Global South that the establishment of a just peace in Ukraine is not only in the interests of Ukraine and the West, they are necessary for the preservation of the world economic and political system that developed after the Second World War and provided a way out of the state of poverty for most countries .

Influential countries such as India, China, Brazil and South Africa say they oppose the war but have refused to condemn the invasion and join Western sanctions against Moscow. Western experts point out that “neutrality” is economically beneficial for these countries – for example, India, in a little more than a year, started buying Russian oil from almost zero to about half of what Russia exports by sea. According to data investigated by the New York Times, purchases by India and China have allowed Russia to more than offset losses from the closure of European energy markets caused by Russia’s large-scale attack on Ukraine.

China and India are now buying so much Russian oil that Moscow is selling more of it than before the invasion of Ukraine, although due to price caps imposed by Western countries, the Russian government is getting less revenue from the oil trade, experts say.

At the same time, African countries, the countries of the Middle East and Latin America suffer from a decrease in the supply of food and fertilizers as a result of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

At a meeting in Copenhagen last weekend, senior officials from the Group of Seven and the European Union tried to convince their counterparts from India, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa and Saudi Arabia that any fair peace deal in Ukraine must involve Russia withdrawing its troops. from the territory of Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, the officials met to discuss Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s peace formula and the Ukrainian president’s plans to hold a global summit on these proposals.

Will it be possible to convince the Global South that Russian aggression harms their interests as well? This issue was discussed on Wednesday by experts of the American research center Atlantic Council in Washington.

A slow but noticeable shift in the position of the Global South in favor of Ukraine – experts

Speaking about how African countries reacted to the war that Russia started in Europe, Rama Yade, the head of the African Center at the Atlantic Council said that for the countries of the African continent it was a conflict that was not well understood and far from them.

While many African countries have had close ties with Russia since the days when they received help from the Soviet Union in their anti-colonial struggle against the West, Ukraine was for them a new and unexplored country, moreover one that was supported by the West. That is why, in her opinion, it is so important that Ukrainian officials visit Africa, talk with local politicians, try to make Ukraine closer and more understandable to them.

On the other hand, as the researcher says, as the votes at the UN showed, again, due to their history, none of the African countries supported the occupation of Ukrainian territories by Russia, that is, the issues of sovereignty and state borders are important for Africans, she believes. And in her opinion, this could be a valid argument for Africans, much more understandable for them than, for example, trying to explain that Ukraine is waging an anti-colonial struggle against Russia, which in Africa is still perceived as an ally in the former anti-colonial struggle.

As he thinks Kapil Sharma, who heads the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council, India demonstrates that it opposes the Russian war, although it does not directly condemn Russian aggression. For this, in his opinion, there are also historical reasons, as well as cultural reasons – in the Indian political tradition, it is not customary to make sharp statements, the Indian expert notes.

As for purchases of Russian oil, according to him, India adheres to the regime established by Western countries, in particular, regarding price restrictions, and the fact that India processes Russian oil and sells gasoline in Europe has a positive effect on the stabilization of world fuel prices. , says Sharma.

Perhaps the most difficult is the attitude of Latin American countries to the war in Europe, which, on conviction Jason Marchak, who heads the Atlantic Council’s Latin American Center, is a “European war” that has nothing to do with Latin America. Moreover, these countries believe that the US is pressuring them without giving enough in return.

On the other hand, if you look at the voting of this region at the UN, in most cases the countries of South America either supported resolutions in favor of Ukraine or abstained – even such allies of Russia as Cuba, Bolivia, or El Salvador did not vote in favor of Russia. And only Nicaragua violated this position by voting on the side of Russia.

According to Marchak, the countries of the region often feel deprived of attention from the United States, which China takes advantage of by providing them with the necessary support in the form of loans.

“During meetings with politicians, representatives of business and civil society, I am constantly told that the USA spends tens of billions of dollars in Ukraine, while we provide minimal foreign aid to the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean – this year 2.4 billion dollars” , – explains Marchak and adds that it is important for Washington not only to ask for the votes of these countries against the war, but also to help them survive some of the consequences of this war.

Commenting on these sentiments in Latin America, the former US ambassador to Ukraine and now senior director of the Eurasian Center of the Atlantic Council John Herbst said that he thinks the problem is that President Joe Biden’s administration has not articulated its stance on this war and has not come out with a strong message to domestic and foreign audiences about what is at stake.

“This is not about poor Ukraine being robbed by vile Russia, although that is partly the case, but about the fact that the revisionist Kremlin, a nuclear superpower, albeit with a weak economy, seeks to impose systemic change through direct aggression. And this is a critical challenge that concerns the United States. If we define the problem in this way, the $55 billion we give Ukraine annually in economic and military aid is not such an extraordinary amount of foreign aid. This is not a gift to a country under siege, this is a vital contribution to American security, and in this case there is no reason to say, well, we only give Latin American countries $2 billion, and we spend $55 billion on Ukraine, because it is about deep-seated American interests,” Herbst explained.

In his opinion, the international system built after the Second World War, and in which the United States plays a leading role, has allowed the world to live a record number of years without major wars and to spend on development resources that would otherwise have been wasted on war.

“In 1947, 70% of the world lived in absolute poverty,” Grebst recalls. – Today, that figure is less than 9%, a direct result of the security and economic prosperity we created after World War II and strengthened after the Cold War. And this system is now in danger.”

If you present the case of Ukraine in this way, Herbst is convinced, you will be able to find many more sane allies.

The former diplomat has no doubts that Ukraine and the Western coalition that helps it will win this war, and the global world already feels who will be the winner.

Some African leaders are confused by the rebellion Prigogine is a researcher

The panelists paid special attention to the issue of the mutiny of the “Wagner Group” that happened last weekend. Because this mercenary group plays a significant role on the African continent, keeping at least 10,000 fighters in four countries.

As Rama Yade has noted, some African leaders who rely on the Wagner Group to maintain their power were upset and confused by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion. She emphasized that in order to calm them down, the speech of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was needed, who stated that despite the events in Russia, the “Wagner Group” will continue its activities in Mali, the Central African Republic and other countries.

“Russia’s problem is that Russia looks weak and unstable to its African allies, especially to Mali, Libya, CAR and Sudan, where the Wagner Group is located, but also to other countries,” Yade said. She added that the potential losses are great – not only votes in the UN, but also military ties, arms trade, mining of minerals, which the “Wagnerians” use to pay for their services, as well as pro-Russian propaganda that spreads in many African countries. Therefore, in her opinion, even if the “Wagner Group” ceases to exist, Russia will need something to replace it.

Even in India, which is not connected to the activities of “Wagner”, this rebellion made many worried, because Russia creates an important balance in the region and helps to balance China. If Russia were to weaken, this balance would be disturbed, Sharma believes.