How shelling of the energy sector will affect Ukraine’s GDP: NBU assessment
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Russia’s massive attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have a negative impact on economic activity and can “take away” 1.9-3.6 percentage points of GDP.
About this it is said in the Inflation Report of the National Bank.
The shortage of electricity leads to a decrease in production volumes and a reduction in consumer demand. Thus, the National Bank of Ukraine simulates two scenarios of the future development of events with a shortage of electricity.
By basic scenario, the power system will be quickly restored thanks to repairs and prompt deliveries of equipment. In this case, the negative contribution to GDP in 2023 was estimated by the NBU in 1.9 c. p.and in 2024 – even in 0.6 in. p.
By pessimistic scenario, more significant destruction of energy-generating enterprises or trunk networks, temporary shutdown of individual NPP units due to reduced maneuverability of the system, significant losses in heat and gas supply, as well as temporary long-term outages in deficit regions of the country are possible. In this case, the negative contribution will be more significant – 3.6 in. n. and 1.5 in. p. respectively in 2023 and 2024.
The energy deficit also leads to foreign trade losses, primarily due to increased imports of oil products and energy products. In the base scenario, the loss in 2023 is estimated at 2 billion dollars and another 0.5 billion dollars in 2024, in the negative – 4 billion dollars and 1.2 billion dollars, respectively.
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