Rumors about a new offensive on Kyiv were disinformation of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

In February 2023, the Main Operational Directorate (GOU) of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces reported on “successful efforts at operational camouflage” designed to convince Ukrainian intelligence of the possibility of a new attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. This follows from a secret document of the US Department of Defense, which got into the network as a result of a large-scale leak.

The document studied by Radio Liberty states that the “operational camouflage” operation took place from February 3 to 10. The heads of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, according to the Pentagon, said that they “successfully convinced the Ukrainian intelligence services of the possibility of a joint Russian-Belarusian offensive from Belarusian territory.” As evidence of the success of the operation, the representative of the GOU of the General Staff cited the report of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia on the reaction of Ukraine to the reports of the joint air-tactical exercises of the aviation units of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus, which began on January 16, about the transfer to Belarus from Russia of operational-tactical complexes “Iskander- M”, as well as about shifting the focus of Russian-Belarusian scientists from “defensive” to “offensive”.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine also allegedly believed that the training in Belarus of those mobilized for the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the training of units of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Federation is an attempt by Russia to secretly form combat-ready units for the offensive in the Volyn direction – to create obstacles in the delivery of Western military aid to Kyiv. Indeed, on March 20, 2022, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported a “big threat of an attack from Belarus on Volyn.”

As stated in the document of the US Department of Defense, the Main Operational Office of the General Staff of the Russian Army recommended continuing the operation to disinform the Ukrainian command about the probability of an attack from the territory of Belarus, dividing it into two phases. The first phase was supposed to last until March 6, the second from March 6 to 11. Plans for both phases were supposed to be sent to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus for approval.

On February 21, 2023, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov declared that he “does not believe” in a new attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, said that the goal of joint Russian-Belarusian scientists is to “frighten Ukraine”. According to Reznikov and other Ukrainian officials, Belarus at that time did not have enough Russian soldiers for a new offensive – about 9 to 11 thousand people.

A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 began with the advance of Russian troops from Belarus. After the fierce fighting near Kyiv and the occupation of settlements in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions, the Russian army was forced to retreat from these territories. On April 2, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced the complete return of Kyiv region under its control.

An American serviceman was arrested on charges of leaking classified information from the Pentagon Jack Teixeira. The US Ministry of Defense does not comment on the contents of the leaked documents.