How will the population of the Earth change by the end of the century? Forecasts of scientists
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By the end of the century, 97% of countries will not be able to support their population
IgorVetushko/Depositphotos
By the end of the century, birth rates worldwide will be so low that most countries will not be able to support their existing population. At the same time, the leaders in terms of birth rate will be the poorest countries.
This is stated in the study, published in the scientific journal The Lancet, informs Reuters.
American researchers predict that by 2050, 155 out of 204 countries and territories (76% of all) will have a birth rate below what is needed to reproduce the population. By 2100, this indicator will increase to 198 – 97%.
Scientists came to these conclusions by analyzing surveys, censuses and other data collected from 1950 to 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors study.
According to scientists, by the end of the century, more than three quarters of live births will occur in countries with low and below-average income levels. More than half of them are sub-Saharan African countries.
In 1950, the average number of births per woman was about 5. While in 2021, it dropped to 2.2.
At the same time, by 2021, 110 countries (54%) already had indicators that do not ensure reproduction of the population – lower than 2.1 children per woman.
A particularly alarming trend is observed in South Korea and Serbia. There, the birth rate is less than 1.1 children per woman.
Declining births in high-income countries are associated with more opportunities for women in education and work. At the same time, in poorer countries, as the researchers note, it is necessary to improve access to education and contraceptives.
“As nearly every country’s population declines, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth,” – noted Natalia Bhattacharjee, co-author of the report.
We will remind, in 2023 in South Korea fell down a birth rate that was already the lowest in the world.
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