Electricity deficit. The National Bank announced two scenarios
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The National Bank predicts that the electricity deficit in Ukraine as a result of the Russian shelling will last at least until the end of 2024. This is stated in the Inflation Report for January 2023.
Photo: lenta.ua 6
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Two NBU scenarios
The NBU considered two scenarios of the further development of events with a deficit of e/e. Basic — provides for a relatively quick restoration of the power system thanks to repairs and operational supplies of equipment.
Pessimistic — takes into account more significant destruction of power-generating enterprises or main networks, temporary shutdown of individual NPP units due to a decrease in system maneuverability, significant losses in heat and gas supply, as well as temporary long-term power outages in deficit regions of Ukraine.
The deficit of e/e leads to a decrease in production volumes and a reduction in consumer demand. When the base scenario is implemented, the negative contribution to GDP in 2023 is estimated by the NBU at 1.9 percent. p., and in 2024 — another 0.6 percent. p. If the negative scenario is realized, then the contribution will be more significant — 3.6 c. p. and 1.5 i. respectively in 2023 and 2024.
The energy deficit also leads to losses in foreign trade, primarily due to increased imports of petroleum products and energy products.
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In the base scenario, the losses in 2023 are estimated at $2 billion and another $0.5 billion in 2024, in the negative scenario — $4 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively.
As a result of the growth of business production costs, the pro-inflationary influence of the energy terror will increase compared to the previous year and in the II-III quarters of 2023 will amount to 3 percent. p., and by the end of the year it will decrease to 2 c. p. on the implementation of both basic and pessimistic scenarios.
In the second scenario, higher spending pressure is offset by weaker aggregate demand.
Let’s remind
The energy system of Ukraine has already survived 13 enemy missile attacks and 15 UAV strikes on energy facilities.
In addition, more than 10 GW of the main installed capacities are not yet available to the Ukrainian energy system and are under the control of the enemy. This is the largest in Ukraine and Europe Zaporizhia NPP, Zaporizhia TPP, Luhansk TPP, Uglehorskaya TPP, Kakhovskaya HPP.
Author: 
News feed editor Anna Nedogybchenko. She writes on the following topics: Finance, banks, economy, investments
- NBU
- Power engineering
Source: Ministry of Finance
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