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Western commentators observing the Russian war against Ukraine, trying to draw conclusions from the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, agree that the Ukrainians are in for another difficult winter of war, during which the ability of the Ukrainians to restore their own resources and destroy the aggressor will be most important.

The retreat of the Russian invaders in 2022 from a large part of the Ukrainian territories captured at the beginning of the invasion, and the unsuccessful attempts of the Russians to seize the initiative during the summer of 2023 did not dissuade the Putin regime from dreams of conquering Ukraine, and therefore the continuation of the war of attrition is an obvious forecast that analysts resort to.

Laurence Friedman, one of the most authoritative British military historians, said in an interview with Voice of America that “if it was another country, today we would say that Russia should be looking for a way out, because it has reached a dead end. It will not achieve its main goal. All this is humiliating and useless. But I believe that Putin is afraid to admit defeat and admit that he is unable to take control of all those territories, which he called the conquests of Russia.”

“So, my conclusion for about a year now is that we need to be ready for all of this to continue. This does not mean that this will be the case. But we do not know exactly what is happening in Russia to such an extent that we expect big changes, big changes in the directions of Russian policy. This means that you have to be ready to continue. But it also means that hostilities should be aimed at influencing Russian political decisions, not just to gain a little more territory,” Friedman believes.

Pressure

Major breakthroughs are not expected in the near future, and Jack Watling, a senior employee of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, notes that in these conditions, the task of the Ukrainians is not only to hold positions, but also to maintain constant and powerful pressure on the Russian occupiers at the same time in many areas of the front.

He writes that “in the winter of 2022-23, fierce clashes took place on a large part of the front, but Ukrainian attempts to change the strip of control were limited. The absence of the threat of an offensive by the Armed Forces allowed Russia to build three wide defensive strips with mines, trenches and obstacles, which complicated the offensive operations of Ukraine this summer.”

“If Ukraine does not continue to put pressure on Russian positions this winter, there is a risk that those defensive lines will be expanded. Therefore, Kyiv must combine the restoration of its forces with maintaining pressure on the Russians,” concludes Watling.

Such constant pressure on Russian positions, according to the RUSI analyst, will cause losses to the invaders, and “as long as the high level of losses persists, Russia’s ability to train a sufficient number of new troops to carry out successful offensive actions will be limited.”

Partners

Laurence Friedman believes that more than a year and a half of full-scale Russian war has shown that the US and Europe have enough resources to support Ukraine for a long time.

He also insists that Europe shows readiness to help Ukrainians in the future and, in his opinion, “there are no signs of real fatigue on the European side.”

“Leading European states are quite stable and determined. Slovakia and Hungary are not enthusiastic, but this is not the main issue for them. They cannot prevent the EU from doing what the EU deems necessary. The position of Great Britain is obviously firm. So, the question actually concerns the US,” Friedman believes.

At the same time, Laurence Friedman suggests that even if Donald Trump were to become the president of the United States again, this would not necessarily mean an immediate end to support for Ukraine, but he believes that a change in Washington’s position would cause disagreements in NATO, and the Europeans would It would be difficult to help Ukrainians alone.

According to Jack Watling, given the “political incapacity in Washington, the provision of plans for 2024 will largely depend on European capitals.”

Threats and opportunities of winter

Jack Watling predicts that this winter Russia will again try to bomb the Ukrainian life support system of cities – primarily energy facilities.

But he notes that winter also gives Ukrainians certain advantages on the battlefield, provided they have better equipment.

“Winter creates opportunities to increase Russian losses. If Russian troops are drawn into the defensive along a long front line, with Ukrainian troops looking for weak points rather than trying to break through entrenched positions, then Russian soldiers will remain on the outside. They will be wet and cold. If at the same time targeted strikes destroy their supply, then insufficient training and lack of skill of the Russian military will increase the consequences of the weather for them. It is worth noting that Russian losses last winter were extremely high even in conditions when the Russians had a fire advantage,” Watling emphasizes.

The main thing, according to Jack Watling, is the ability of the armed forces of Ukraine to maintain pressure on Russian positions and at the same time constantly restore their own capabilities, freeing the military for the most massive training both in Ukraine and abroad.