Are earthquakes threatening Ukraine, as in Turkey? Seismologists answer
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On February 6, an earthquake struck Turkey, killing at least 11,000 people. The natural disaster shook several other countries: Syria, Iraq, Lebanon. The tremors were felt even in the south of Ukraine, in particular in the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions, reported seismologists of the Main Center for Special Control. Oleksandr Kendzera, director of the Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and specialists of the Main Control Center told “UP. Life” whether earthquakes of “Turkish scale” threaten Ukraine and how powerful they could potentially be. Can an earthquake happen in Ukraine? The State Emergency Service assures that the risks of earthquakes in Ukraine are insignificant. This was announced by Volodymyr Demchuk, director of the Emergency Response Department of the State Emergency Service, Ukrinform writes. “Of course, there are risks, but they are not as significant as on the territory of Turkey. And now we cannot say that Ukraine is threatened by the same kind of large-scale earthquakes. There are relevant experts who can confirm this,” he said. Illustrative photo: tomwang/Depositphotos Earthquakes in Ukraine can potentially occur, but they are less intense than in Turkey, which is located at the junction of three tectonic plates. However, Ukraine belongs to the Mediterranean-Trans-Asian seismic belt, just like Turkey. “If the territory of Ukraine belongs to a seismically active belt, then it can be expected that there will also be dangerous seismic phenomena – earthquakes on its territory,” says Oleksandr Kendzera, director of the Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. “The greatest danger is in the territory of the southwestern regions of Ukraine due to the fact that they are located closest to the so-called seismically active zone of Vrancha. It is part of the seismically active belt of our planet, which stretches through the Mediterranean Sea, Greece, Crimea, the Caucasus and on to the Hindu Kush. This such a powerful belt where earthquakes occur all the time,” Oleksandr Kendzera says. The level of danger from earthquakes on the territory of Ukraine is shown on general seismic zoning maps, which are part of state building regulations. “The map shows which territory of Ukraine can be affected by earthquakes, both from the Vrancha zone and from other seismically active zones,” the seismologist explains. What does the danger of an earthquake depend on? Photo: Serkan Avci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Seismic hazards are always present, but a lot depends on how well the structures are built. Oleksandr Kendzera says that buildings should be built according to the level of probable threat, so that they can withstand earthquakes. The works by which the hazard is determined are called general seismic zoning, detailed seismic zoning, and microzoning. With the help of these works, experts can determine what the fluctuations will be in the place where the object is being designed – a building, a nuclear power plant, etc. “Unfortunately, in Turkey, the real level of seismic danger for buildings and structures that were in the area of the earthquake was not fully taken into account. It turned out that the seismic effects are stronger than those for which the buildings are designed. If the house is earthquake-resistant, then worry that the earthquake will be destructive, as in Turkey – there is no need,” the seismologist explains. Levels of seismic resistance are determined by builders who have special methods for calculating seismic fluctuations in complex built environments. In this way, you can calculate what stress there will be in this or that place of the house and, if necessary, strengthen the structures. “Many of our buildings are earthquake-resistant – both in Odesa, in Prykarpattia, and in Kyiv,” the scientist adds. Read also: How to act during an earthquake: advice from the State Emergency Service How strong are earthquakes in Ukraine? The Special Control Center told “UP. Life” how powerful earthquakes can be in Ukraine and what this is related to. “The seismic hazard of the territory of Ukraine is determined by the sources of earthquakes located in Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Odesa regions and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea,” say seismologists of the Main Center for Special Control. There is also a powerful seismically active zone near Ukraine – the Romanian Vranca Mountains. Earthquakes of this territory are felt in some settlements of Ukraine. “According to the general seismic zoning maps of the ZSR-2004, registration of the maximum possible earthquakes with an intensity of up to 9 points on the MSK-64 scale is possible on the territory of Ukraine,” says the Central Committee of the Ukrainian SSR. According to a seismologist, earthquakes with a maximum intensity of 9 points on the 12-point MSK-64 scale (not to be confused with the 9-point Richter scale, by which magnitude is measured) can occur in Ukraine. The strongest earthquakes can be in the southwest of the Odesa region due to the proximity to the Vrancha zone, Oleksandr Kendzera adds. In general, earthquake-prone areas where earthquakes with an intensity of 6 to 9 may occur make up about 20% of the territory of Ukraine. More than 10 million people live in these territories, say the Central Committee of the Russian Federation. Areas with a predicted intensity of 7-9 points make up about 12% of the country’s territory – there are almost 80 settlements and 7 million people live in them. In general, up to 40% of the territory of Ukraine may be directly affected by dangerous seismic events, say seismologists. Also, the Special Control Center recalled statistics on earthquakes for the past year. In 2022, a number of powerful earthquakes were registered on the territory of Ukraine: on January 21 from the Kryvyi Rih district of the Dnipropetrovsk region (magnitude 3.3 on the Richter scale, intensity at the source 3 points on the MSK-64 scale). On February 21, an earthquake from the Chervonograd district of Lviv region (magnitude 2.8 on the Richter scale, intensity at the source – 3 points on the MSK-64 scale); 34 seismic phenomena from the territory of Ukraine, with an intensity at the source of up to 3 points, which were not felt by people. Seismologists identified 3 sources of earthquakes from the region of the Vrancha mountains, which were felt in some settlements of Ukraine. In total, in the period from 2018 to 2022, HCSC registered 15 seismic phenomena on the territory of Ukraine, which were felt by the population. Most of them belong to the seismically active zone of Vranca (Romania). It will be recalled that after the earthquake in Turkey and Syria, minor shocks were felt at two Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Energoatom said whether nuclear power plants are ready for possible earthquakes. Read also: “Bloop”: what a glacial earthquake sounds like, which scientists could not detect for 8 years. AUDIO
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