Lowering the conscription age to 20 will have a negative impact on the birth rate: demographer

The proposal to mobilize people aged 20+ was repeatedly heard

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Reducing the maximum conscription age to 20 may have negative consequences for the demographic situation in Ukraine.

About this stated deputy director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M. V. Ptukhy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Oleksandr Gladun, on the telethon “Edyny Novyny”.

“For demography, war is generally bad. In any case, all age groups die. In 2001, we had the lowest birth rate in the history of Ukraine. If we take the year 2001 plus or minus 5 years, that is, 10 years, then this contingent the smallest in number in the age structure. Therefore, mortality will affect this age group as well, and it will decrease.” Oleksandr Gladun said.

The reduction of the conscription age was discussed again, in particular, after UP interview with Taras Chmut, head of the “Return Alive” BF, who suggested lowering the mobilization age to 20 years.

Demographer Oleksandr Gladun said that nowadays the average age of a mother at the birth of a child is 27-28 years, with regard to fatherhood, it is several years older for men.

It is this age group that is in reproductive age, so lowering the conscription age would have a negative impact on demography.

At the same time, he is convinced, that the decision should be made by the Ministry of Defense in view of the needs of the army.

“But on the other hand, if there is no one to fight, then what to do? Because we see how in the occupied territories Russians issue their passports, conscript into their army and force our citizens to fight against (Ukrainians – ed.).

Therefore, I think that in this case the Ministry of Defense should decide, taking into account the needs that they have. Otherwise, there will simply be no state“, – added Gladun.

In 2023, more than 187,000 children were born in Ukraine – this is the lowest figure since independence. Compared to 2021, the birth rate has fallen by more than 30%.

At the same time, Oleksandr Gladun emphasizes that in 2022-2023 the birth count took place only in the territories controlled by Ukraine – there are fewer of them than before the full-scale war.

“That is, the decrease is explained, firstly, by the fact that the number of births is not calculated for the entire territory. And secondly, there really is such a tendency to decrease the birth rate in general.”said the demographer.