“The border has already been crossed”: researchers predicted the future of the Amazon forests – News

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Researchers warn that by 2050, half of the area of ​​the Amazon rainforest will be destroyed. The reason for this is the lack of water, land clearing and climate change.

The results of the study, published in the scientific journal Nature, indicate that reaching a critical point can lead to local, regional or even global forest collapse, writes The Guardian.

The researchers analyzed how forests were affected by human activity and climate change. According to them, they have already crossed the conditional mark, after which they will undergo global changes. Therefore, scientists call for the necessary measures to be taken to restore damaged areas and increase the overall resilience of the ecosystem.

“The forest has already become weaker and more uniform. By 2050, this process will accelerate. We must react now. When we pass the tipping point, we will lose control of the system”, said Bernardo Flores, a scientist from the Federal University of Santa Catarina (Brazil) and the lead author of the study.

This requires action, because even a local cessation of deforestation will not be able to prevent the collapse without a global reduction in carbon emissions, which destroys the atmosphere and climate, scientists have assured.

The Amazon forests have resisted climate change for 65 million years. However, they now face unprecedented threats. For example, drought, heat, fires and logging destroy even the deep central regions of the forest. As a result, its functioning has changed: in many areas, the amount of precipitation has decreased, and the forest is gradually turning from a “sink” of carbon into its source.

According to scientists, by 2050, from 10% to 47% of the Amazon forests will be damaged. This can cause unexpected ecosystem transitions and negatively affect the regional climate.

In order to avoid these consequences, the researchers proposed to establish a safe limit of deforestation – 10% of the total area of ​​the region. This will keep global warming within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Unfortunately, the line has already been crossed. 15% of the Amazon forest area has already been destroyed, and 17% has been damaged by human activities (logging, fires and illegal logging). Another 38% are at risk of being weakened by prolonged droughts experienced over the past ten years.

Scientists also predicted what might happen to the Amazon forests in the future. Using the new data and computer simulations, they identified three possible scenarios:

• snow-white savannah;

• degraded open canopy;

• degraded forest (this will lead to more fires and droughts).

In the central and southern parts of Amazonia, the temperature of the dry season is already 2°C higher than 40 years ago. By 2050, 10-30 more dry days are predicted than now, and an increase in annual maximum temperatures by 2-4°C. This will cause “forests and local populations to suffer from abnormal heat”, as well as reducing the productivity of forests and their ability to absorb carbon.

We previously reported that due to the outbreak of avian flu, the populations of seabirds are declining sharply.