Was the winter unusually warm and what consequences did it have for the harvest

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In Ukraine, a trend towards warming seasons is increasingly being observed in the context of climate change. Many temperature records were broken this winter. “Ukrainian Pravda. Life” found out whether the winter of 2023 was really unusually warm, when and what temperature records were registered this year. She also found out whether it affected the future yield. This was reported by: Anna Danylyak, an expert on environmentalization of agriculture from the public organization “Ekodiya”, representative of the public organization “Ekoclub” Yuliya Kvitka, head of the department of agrometeorology of the Hydrometeorological Center of Ukraine Tetyana Adamenko, deputy head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council Denys Marchuk. Photo: chaoss/Depositphotos Was the winter of 2022-2023 abnormally warm Tetyana Adamenko, head of the department of agrometeorology, says that the winter of 2022-2023 was one of the warmest in the last three decades. Only 2019-2020 was recognized as warmer. “On average, the air temperature in some regions exceeded 2-3°C, and, for example, in the western regions – 4-4.5°C,” she says. According to her, this season had a hybrid character. The period from the second decade of November to the middle of December can really be called calendar winter. After that, there was a colossal warming and many temperature records were set: the most at the end of 2022 and on January 1 and 2 at the beginning of 2023. These were the warmest winter nights and days. In particular, according to the data of the weather station of the Boris Sreznevskyi Central Railway Station, on January 1 in the capital of Ukraine, for the first time in 143 years of observations, the average daily air temperature was +10.3°С. This is 4.4°C higher than the record temperature value for this day in 2021. Weather conditions resembled April. Forecasters recorded a similar situation in European countries. For example, on the first day of the year, the thermometer broke records in most of this territory. “This is even the highest average daily temperature ever measured between December 17 and February 15 in Biarritz, and the equivalent of an ‘average’ day in early July,” Meteo France meteorologist Francois Jobard emphasized on Twitter. The transition to spring in 2023, according to Tetyana Adamenko, also took place very early. In the western and southern regions, winter lasted approximately 30-40 days. According to her, the average air temperature in winter, in particular in the central regions, should be -2°C, -3°C. And it reached from +1°C to +3°C. In Kyiv, it is approximately +0.1°C, but it should be -3°C. Anna Danylyak, an expert in the ecologization department of the NGO “Ekodiya”, says that the main reason for this year’s warm winter is global climate change. Anna Danylyak, an expert in the ecologization department of the NGO “Ekodiya” “Both ecologists and climatologists draw attention to the fact that this leads to very drastic changes. By 2040, according to an optimistic scenario, an increase in the average annual temperature in Ukraine is expected within 0.8°C – 1.1°C,” says Yuliya Kvitka, expert of Ecoclub. How an abnormally warm winter can affect crop yields The ecologist of “Ekoklub” said that there was practically no stable snow cover this winter. It fell out, but melted very quickly. Soil freezing was almost never observed. The exception is Kharkiv and Sumy regions. There was a slight frost. According to her, the warm weather contributed to safe wintering conditions for agricultural crops. Today, there are no prerequisites to assert possible yield losses due to weather conditions. Perhaps there were isolated cases in some farms, but not mass cases throughout Ukraine. If the high temperature in winter sharply alternates with frost, emphasizes Yuliya Kvitka, namely it falls below -15°C, then the frost and cold resistance of grain crops is much reduced. A significant part of crops is reduced and damaged. According to environmentalist Anna Danylyak, no such temperature changes were observed this year. The deputy head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, Denys Marchuk, said that in the fall, enough rain fell in our country, which made it possible to preserve moisture in the soil and successfully overwinter crops. Yulia Kvitka says that this year in the southern and central regions of Ukraine, a moisture deficit in the spring is still possible. In the western regions, on the contrary, its surplus is predicted. Yuliya Kvitka, representative of the public organization “Ekoklub” According to her, everything will depend on the weather conditions and the amount of precipitation. Denys Marchuk also noted that in winter the air temperature in most of the territory of Ukraine was higher than the climatic norm, but this did not harm the crops. In general, the state of this year’s crops across the country can be assessed as satisfactory,” says Denys Marchuk. According to him, the consequences of the war with the Russian Federation, mining and contamination of fields significantly influenced the reduction of yield in Ukraine. Denys Marchuk notes that according to different estimates of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and the specialized committee of agrarian policy of the VRU, 5 million hectares of land are not suitable for conducting any agricultural activity due to the war. It is simply impossible to carry out any work there. “This is one of the main reasons for the reduction of spring crops and winter crops. It is especially relevant for Kharkiv Oblast, Kherson Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Chernihiv Oblast, and Sumy Oblast,” says the Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council. He adds that the last two named regions have already been de-occupied, so farmers are already clearing the territory, and for other parts of Ukraine, this slows down field work. Sowing has begun on approximately 500,000 hectares of freed territory. We remind you that more than 470.9 thousand hectares of land are still subject to survey and, if necessary, demining. In Ukraine, all areas where hostilities took place are considered to be contaminated with explosives. According to the estimates of the Sappers’ Association, this is 139,000 square meters. km A fifth of the country’s territory needs inspection. A warm winter promotes the reproduction of pests that destroy crop yields. Anna Danylyak adds that the consequence of warmer winters can be the active reproduction of various pests, as well as the migration of previously uncommon species from other regions. According to her, their potential growth may encourage farmers to use toxic plant protection agents even more. Photo: Fokus2017//Depositphotos By reducing the insect population, says the Ecodia expert, we affect all further biological species in the food chain. That is, we cause their mass extinction, or in the best case we force them to migrate. Anna Danylyak notes that an alternative to chemical treatment can be nature-oriented solutions that allow you to naturally control the population of species that can harm the crop. Nature-based pest control methods: crop rotation. By alternating science-based crops one after the other, it is possible to control the spread of harmful species for agricultural crops. One culture may oppress and repress them, while another they may love very much; monitoring the state of crops (whether there are no diseases and a large number of pests); scientific and expedient land cultivation, which involves plowing stubble and organic residues for the winter; the use of natural biological preparations, thanks to which the fields will be less vulnerable to pests and diseases. The deputy chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, Denys Marchuk, says that there is a pest problem in Ukraine every year, regardless of the winter. “There used to be more of them in the south of our country, now they are actively multiplying everywhere. Therefore, the market is preparing for the purchase of protection for plants,” he says. According to the agrarian, the problem this year is complicated by the fact that due to a 20-25% increase in prices, farmers or household owners will not be able to fully purchase the necessary drugs for protection. We will remind you that last winter in the capital was among the eight warmest since 1881. Read also: Scientists reported record warm winter in Antarctica for 70 years Tetyana Denisenko, “Ukrainian truth. Life” Cover photo: Pakhnyushchyy/Depositphotos

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