A year and a half faster: scientists predict that the peak of the Sun’s activity will come as early as 2024
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The nearest peak of the solar activity cycle will come a year and a half earlier than predicted – at the beginning of 2024.
This is evidenced by the conclusions of astrophysicists from the Center of Excellence in Space Sciences of India, who published their research in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters, writes Science Alert.
To determine the peak of solar activity, scientists use cycles: approximately every 11 years, the star’s magnetic field changes polarity. This is accompanied by the rise and fall of activity – sunspots, solar flares and coronal mass ejections.
The last solar minimum, marking the end of the 24th solar cycle, occurred in 2019. It was relatively “quiet” with little activity.
| Photo: NASA SDO |
The solar maximum of the new, 25th cycle was predicted in July 2025. But something did not go according to plan: the activity of the Sun began to increase and significantly exceeded official forecasts. According to preliminary calculations by scientists, the new cycle will be one of the strongest since 1755, when people started counting them.
In 1935, scientists formed the Waldmeier effect, a pattern that links sunspots and the length of the solar cycle. That is, the faster the activity of sunspots grows, the closer the solar maximum is.
But only now have researchers analyzed the data for the past few decades and found out that the Waldmeier effect can also be used to predict when the polar magnetic fields will weaken to zero and switch places, that is, the solar maximum will occur.
It will be recalled that earlier scientists demonstrated what the surface of the Sun looks like and showed a powerful explosion, as a result of which a “canyon of fire” was formed.
Read also: Similar to the aurora borealis: scientists noticed unusual radiation in the Sun’s atmosphere
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