In Ukraine, the demographic development strategy until 2040 was presented: what it entails

Ministry of Social Policy presented Demographic development strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2040. It aims to ensure the long-term reproduction of the population of Ukraine, in particular, in conditions of war, epidemics, poverty, economic crises, ecological and man-made disasters.

“The armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and the temporary occupation of part of its territory caused a deepening of the demographic crisis, which consists in a significant decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality (both among the military and among the civilian population, including children).

Also, the consequence is multi-million temporary internal displacement of residents from dangerous areas, as well as more than 6 million forced emigration of mostly women and children.– the Ministry of Social Policy notes.

The armed aggression of the Russian Federation caused an increase in premature mortality. Thus, according to expert assessment, after the full-scale invasion of the Russians, the average life expectancy of Ukrainians decreased from 66.4 years for men and 76.2 years for women (in 2020) to 57.3 and 70.9, respectively, in 2023.

According to the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, these challenges and threats by 2041 may cause the population of Ukraine to decrease to 28.9 million people, and by 2051 – to 25.2 million.

In order to counteract these factors and ensure the long-term reproduction of the population of Ukraine, the Ministry defined 6 strategic goals.

1. Increasing the birth rate

As noted in the Strategy, in 2021 the total birth rate was 1.16, which is 45% less than needed to ensure simple reproduction of the population (a constant population as a result of approximately the same birth rate and death rate.

Also in this year, the number of children born was half the number of people who turned 60 (born in 1961) and who had the right to retire.

After the beginning of the aggression of the Russian Federation, the total birth rate (demographic indicator of the ratio of the number of births per year per 1,000 inhabitants) is less than 1.0.

However, to restore the population the target fertility rate should be around 2.2.

2. Reduction of premature mortality

Data from the Ministry of Social Policy indicate that the average life expectancy in Ukraine in 2020 was 71.3 years. This is the lowest indicator in Europe.

“The target indicator for reducing the premature mortality rate is to reduce the probability of death under the age of 65 to the average in the EU countries: 16.3% – among men, 8.3% – for women”, – noted in the Strategy.

In Ukraine, these indicators in 2020 were 40 and 16.8%, respectively.

3. Ensuring migratory growth of the population

In order to achieve an excess of the number of people who arrived in the country over the number of those who left, the migration policy of Ukraine should be aimed at:

• the return to Ukraine of forced migrants as a result of the full-scale war and those who left the country before it began;
• attracting representatives of the Ukrainian diaspora abroad to Ukraine;
• selective recruitment of migrants from other countries.

4. Ensuring optimal population placement on the territory of Ukraine

“Mass internal movements of the population of Ukraine provide opportunities for the development of regions of IDP resettlement. First of all, we are talking about the relatively safe territories of Central Ukraine, which are expected to become the new economic center of the state.” – specified in the Strategy.

It is assumed that for this the state policy in the field of internal migration should be aimed at:– improving the quality of life of IDPs, promoting their integration into local territorial communities; – developing areas of so-called risky residence (probably 10-25 km from the northern and eastern borders).

5. Adaptation of society to demographic aging and formation of conditions for active longevity

This strategic goal involves ensuring support for the health and well-being of the elderly, as well as creating conditions for their self-realization and active life.

6. Development of opportunities for quality life in Ukraine

“The demographic policy of Ukraine should also provide for the creation of end-to-end prerequisites that indirectly affect the decisions of citizens to have children, return to Ukraine or, conversely, go abroad to live, as well as opportunities to overcome the problem of premature mortality.” – it says in the Strategy.

The Ministry of Social Policy calls these prerequisites:

• formation of a safe social and ecological environment;
• development of tools to provide citizens with their own (individual) housing;
• creating opportunities for economic independence and raising the level of citizens’ well-being;
• availability and appropriate quality of infrastructure, human friendliness of the environment;
• ensuring social cohesion of Ukrainian society.

We will remind, in 2023 was born a third fewer children than before the full-scale war.