Himalayan glaciers could melt by 75% by 2100 – report
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By the end of the century, glaciers in the Himalayas may lose up to 75% of their volume due to global warming. In lowland areas, this will cause dangerous floods, and in mountainous areas – a shortage of drinking water for 240 million people. This is stated in the report of the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). A group of international scientists found that the melting of glaciers is accelerating in the Himalayas, where the peaks of Everest and K2 are located. During the 2010s, the ice sheets shed ice 65% faster than in the previous decade. According to ecologists, the glaciers will disappear completely in 100 years. Photo: AlexBrylov/Depositphotos 35 researchers and scientists from 12 countries and 23 institutions worked on the report. They studied the impact of changes in the cryosphere on ecology and humans. “We are currently on track for 2.7°C – at which temperature even three-quarters of the glaciers in the Hindu Kush mountain range will disappear. Every increase in warming matters. Scientists say that at very low emissions, most glaciers and snow cover can be preserved, and losses will slow down around 2040,” the organization notes. Scientists note that with warming of 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, glaciers across the region will lose 30% to 50% of their volume by 2100. The melting of glaciers mostly depends on their location. At 3°C warming, the glaciers in the Eastern Himalayas, which include Nepal and Bhutan, will lose up to 75% of their ice, and at 4°C warming – all 80% of their volume. Complicating this research was the fact that previously scientists had no records or measurements of glaciers in the Himalayas. Therefore, scientists could not say whether they are melting or not. However, in 2019, the US declassified spy satellite images of the region’s glaciers dating back to 1970. So the scientists were able to compare the situation with the current one. The report found that water flows in the region’s 12 river basins, including the Ganges, Indus and Mekong, are likely to peak around mid-century. This will have consequences for more than 1.6 billion people who depend on water, as well as 240 million people who live in the mountains. According to forecasts, the number of floods and landslides will increase in the coming decades. They will threaten lives, livelihoods, destroy property and infrastructure. Melting glaciers also pose a threat to downstream communities. Runoff pools in shallow lakes, held back by rocks and debris. This natural barrier will be able to destroy a strong flow of water. Most high mountain communities use glacial water and melted snow to irrigate crops. But the timing of snowfall has become more erratic and less than before. Read also: Artificial intelligence has calculated when the world will reach the threshold of global warming
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