Will the EU deliver the promised million shells to Kyiv? A dispute between France and Poland could slow down the process

How realistic it is to return Crimea to Ukraine, in particular after the announced major counteroffensive of Ukrainian forces, has been discussed by Washington experts in social networks and media pages in recent days.

Crimea must be liberated

Retired US Lieutenant General Ben Godges calls Crimea a “crucial territory” in this war, he believes in the successful de-occupation of the peninsula. On his Twitter page the general wrote:

“It is absolutely clear that Ukraine can liberate Crimea, a crucial territory in this war. It is also absolutely clear that Ukraine’s victory over Russia is in our strategic interests – stability in Europe, protection of international law, a signal for China,” writes Ben Godges.

Luke Coffey, an expert at the Hudson Institute, shares the opinion on the liberation of Crimea, but notes that for this the West should increase military aid to Ukraine even more.

“Ukraine has troops and motivation. We have weapons and ammunition. Let’s help Ukraine to do the job once and for all. Crimea must be liberated,” – wrote on Twitter Coffee.

Coffey believes that any ideas, which envisage a “special status” for Crimea, contain “geopolitical negligence”. In an author’s column for the Wall Street Journal, the expert writes:

“Any settlement that does not return Crimea to Kyiv’s control signals to other hostile countries that military land grabs will be tolerated, setting a dangerous precedent for the 21st century,” Coffey writes.

Coffey predicts that one of the potential locations of the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive is in the south of the country, from the Zaporizhia region in the direction of Melitopol.

“The goal of Kyiv would be to drive a wedge between the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol and the Perekop Isthmus in Crimea. Such a move could be the quickest and most direct way to cut the only land bridge from Russia to Crimea, … where the main road and rail networks run that Russia uses to strengthen its front lines in the south. If Ukraine takes this city, it will leave Russian forces without a land route for replenishment or reinforcements from Russia,” the expert analyzes.

According to Koffi, if the armed forces of the Armed Forces manage to wedge themselves into the territory between Crimea and eastern Ukraine, “the next step will be an offensive on the peninsula.” The only thing the West should do here is to provide Ukraine with all the tools it needs for this work, concludes the expert.

It is far from obvious that Ukraine can return Crimea even under the condition of increased US aid.

Doubts about the return of Crimea to the control of Ukraine were expressed by Alex Velez-Green, national security adviser to Republican Senator Josh Hawley.

“It is far from obvious that Ukraine will be able to return Crimea even under the condition of increasing American military aid. Moreover, even if they could, it is unclear whether such assistance would be in America’s interest, given the trade-offs in Asia and the risk of escalation associated with this particular offensive.” writes on Twitter Velez-Green.

Stefan Sestanovych, head of the Kennan Institute for the Study of Russia and Eurasia, also considers the “ambitious” idea of ​​returning Crimea in an article on the website of the Council on Foreign Relations. In his article, it is said that Western politicians, although they repeat that Ukraine must decide its own military goals, but understand that “such big goals (such as the return of Crimea – ed.) exceed the military potential of Ukraine. They are also worried that Russian President Putin will be ready to use nuclear weapons to hold the Black Sea Peninsula.”

The expert draws attention to the fact that over the past year, Russia has invested a lot of effort in building up defense fortifications in Crimea, which may harm the Ukrainian breakthrough. In addition, according to the expert, the deoccupation of Crimea will be complicated by changes in the demographics of the peninsula, where 350,000 to 600,000 Russians have moved to live in the last 9 years of the war.

Sestanovych believes that Ukrainian politicians are deliberately publicly raising the topic of the deoccupation of Crimea in order to “cement Ukrainian national unity” and make Crimea “the main bargaining chip in any further negotiations.”

“A successful counteroffensive will create a wave of national confidence and at the same time reduce feelings of national exhaustion. The challenge for Ukraine’s leaders will be to find a way to use these powerful sentiments to achieve a result that looks like a victory, even if it falls short of the country’s ultimate goals,” the author of the article writes.

The Canadian publication Toronto Star writes that a few weeks or months may remain before the decisive confrontation regarding Crimea. Journalist Allan Woods believes that the fate of the peninsula depends on the strength, direction and success of Ukraine’s potential counteroffensive.

The war in Ukraine, which began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, will not end until the fate of the peninsula is decided, according to the article “Battle for Crimea: Why it may be the last piece of the puzzle.”